As we have seen so graphically and frequently in the news, increasingly common climate-related events such as extreme flooding, severe droughts, and intense heat waves, cause death and property destruction. A less visible — but equally tragic — consequence is how these events also undermine the resilience of people, communities, and ecosystems around the world.
While the impacts are escalating and portend even more unpredictable challenges, the negative effects on resilience mean that countries and communities are less well-placed to adapt quickly enough with an eye to the future.
The world, especially low- and middle-income countries, cannot afford to wait any longer or to only address the changes once they are already unleashing their devastating impact. The best climate adaptation strategies require interventions that are evidence-based, locally informed, and take a long-term view of what world we want to live in by 2030 and 2050.
As world leaders strive to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, they use scientific research and global climate data to inform climate action plans and initiatives to cut emissions and help countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. Global climate data and economic modeling help countries with some key questions, such as how best to prioritize and allocate resources.
But they don’t tell us everything we need to know. Indigenous people, local communities, women, youth, and other marginalized groups are often missing from scientific and economic models. Climate adaptation initiatives need to be based on science and adapted for the local context to be effective.
Some of our work at RTI International, a global research institute and international development organization, provides a valuable example of this dual approach — using science in conjunction with local groups to tailor interventions to on-the-ground needs.
In Guatemala, RTI engineers and economists worked with researchers from the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, using remote sensing data to develop a hydro-economic model for the U.S. Agency for International Development Sustainable Economic Observatory project. It looks at how water is used, along with unpredictable and changing weather patterns that impact water availability, people’s consumption, livelihoods, food security, and economic growth. The model helped determine how best to allocate water to meet human, industrial, and agricultural needs.
When the team looked at the model from the perspective of local communities, however, they found that local Indigenous groups were missing from the data. UVG suggested engaging an anthropologist to look at how indigenous groups handle water uncertainty. Indigenous groups offered a different perspective and a good reminder that water is a communal resource. Their feedback helped the team understand the gaps in their data and led to more inclusive recommendations that promoted adaptation through water management.
Another challenge that global leaders and policymakers face is developing interventions that will be effective not only now but also in a future that will continue to be shaped by climate change. Technologies such as drones and satellites for remote sensing make it easier to gather localized data, including in data-scarce environments. This fills gaps and helps us understand both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate change at the local level, allowing policymakers to shape adaptation efforts accordingly.
For instance, using spatial datasets on soil characteristics, climate, and historical weather and yield data, RTI projected long-term climate impacts on crop productivity in Rwanda. By utilizing technology to make long-term forecasts, we found that growing certain crops, such as maize, in areas where they have traditionally been grown may not be viable in the forthcoming “new” climate.
This means that common climate-smart agriculture practices, such as switching to drought-resistant maize, may not be sufficient to help Rwandan farmers. Additionally, current initiatives to help farmers adapt to and build resilience to climate change might not be effective 10 or 20 years from now. Possible solutions include helping communities transition to new crops, production systems, and market opportunities that we know can thrive under forecasted conditions within climate change models.
Climate change is impacting our world in ways that we cannot fully predict. How should we continue to adapt to the changing climate and build resilience on an ever-changing planet?
In late 2021, Typhoon Odette caught the Philippines off guard, causing severe damage and loss of human life. While typhoons are common in the region, this storm hit parts of the country that had rarely been in the path of past storms, including areas that were reforested over 20 years ago. Many of the reforested zones were completely uprooted and devastated, while nearby natural forest areas withstood the storm surge, shattering assumptions that recovered or regenerated forests will withstand the impacts of a typhoon almost as well as natural forests.
These kinds of unexpected impacts remind us that we must evolve our understanding, embrace the unknown, and focus on long-term solutions. Adaptation interventions must address the immediate realities on the ground today, but we also need to focus on developing solutions that will remain effective in 10 or 20 years.
The USAID Sustainable Interventions for Biodiversity, Oceans, and Livelihoods project embraces this long-term vision for adaptation and sustainability. Through the project, RTI and our partners are working with the government of the Philippines on a green assessment framework to re-evaluate reforested land and rethink how we should prepare our human and natural environments for future weather events.
The framework will assist the government and local counterparts to address environmental concerns in post-disaster scenarios, using science-based planning to guide reconstruction efforts and safeguard both the natural resource base and local livelihoods. For example, an assessment of damage to water resources and supplies of local natural products, such as honey and rattan, can assist communities in prioritizing reconstruction needs and regeneration initiatives, especially in areas that are at a lower risk of damage from future storms and severe weather events.
We are feeling the impacts of climate change more and more every day. As leaders come together for the 27th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we must remember that while the problem is present and global, the solutions are future-oriented and local.