USAID business forecast: Q2 2021

Opportunities to support the U.S. Agency for International Development in global health programming continue to grow with the release of business forecast data for the second quarter of 2021. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, forecast data showed a dramatic shift in Q3 2020 away from a focus on economic growth and toward health. The latest quarter’s data values new opportunities in the health sector at $20.7 billion — a $19.3 billion increase on the value of such opportunities a year earlier. The overall forecast data for Q2 2021 lists 291 opportunities worth $34.1 billion — a new record in the data that dates back to 2015 and a 17% increase on Q1 2021. Despite this growth, USAID explained in the Q2 2021 business call — which took place on March 10 — that changes under President Joe Biden’s new administration might see shifting priorities. But the forecast will remain an important avenue to understand future organizational shifts and what this will mean for private sector engagement. Health trends Coordinated procurement opportunities supporting the Bureau for Global Health’s work over the next decade remain the largest opportunities for health in the Q2 2021 business forecast. A procurement service agent for HIV is valued at $4.6 billion, a procurement service agent for malaria treatment is $3.2 billion, an agent for diagnostics is $2.5 billion, a next-generation global health supply chain suite of programs is $2.5 billion, and support for in-country logistics is $1.5 billion. These opportunities will support a range of current and emerging health needs, along with the delivery of USAID-backed health services — and the number of questions about the opportunities in the business forecast Q&A demonstrates the hot competition among suppliers. But details are still limited, with USAID unable to provide new information on anticipated release dates and draft requests for tenders, instead asking suppliers to continue monitoring the forecast for updates. Once these opportunities are removed from the forecast, the value of health opportunities will drop dramatically — but new opportunities are continuing to emerge for a range of additional programs with specific health and regional needs. In Serbia, a $4 million vaccination support activity — with an anticipated solicitation release date at the end of March — is newly listed, along with a $50 million family planning activity in Egypt. In Uganda, malaria reduction is an investment priority with a new $50 million opportunity aiming to “strengthen the capacity of malaria prevention and ownership of health at the community and household levels.” And in Afghanistan, a localized response is similarly being sought as part of a $1 million program targeting tuberculosis. Programs specifically for HIV/AIDS continue to grow — with 19 opportunities currently forecast with a total value of $2.1 billion. In Vietnam, a new $10 million opportunity will promote HIV awareness and prevention in collaboration with community-based partners. The private sector is also being sought to support long-term sustainable financing options for maintaining HIV epidemic control, with a new opportunity valued at $25 million. While Vietnam is a growing priority for HIV programming, Africa remains a focal region for health investment. As with HIV, water and sanitation-related opportunities are an area of growth due to their strong link to health. The Q2 2021 forecast lists 19 opportunities valued at $1.4 billion — a new record for global water, sanitation, and hygiene programming in the forecast data. Among the new opportunities are two programs targeting Mozambique, bringing an investment of $75 million to the region: a $50 million investment in sustainable water and sanitation services and a further $25 million targeting small town sanitation. In Indonesia, a $50 million opportunity aims to increase access to safely managed drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene in vulnerable urban areas, highlighting the diversity of global needs in this space. Where are the other areas of growth? Democracy, human rights, and governance have been an area of growth since Q1 2020. And in the new forecast, the value of opportunities has grown to $2.7 billion. The 68 projects cover a range of regions, including Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific. Among the new opportunities is a $500 million program targeting civil society and media to support change in this sector. Also reaching a new record high is investment in gender equality and women’s empowerment. Although it remains a small priority sector for USAID overall, three investments put a strong emphasis on women as part of a focus in Central Asia and the Middle East, including a new $100 million opportunity targeting women’s economic development in Afghanistan. But supporting USAID in managing program delivery and improving capacity is also a growing area for business partners, with forecast opportunities around “management” now valued at $1.5 billion. A new forecast opportunity, valued at $500 million, seeks a contractor to “help USAID in positioning its programs, structure, processes, and workforce to more effectively advance national security and support host country partners on their journey to self-reliance.” And a $300 million opportunity exists for a contractor to transform the learning environment within USAID. By region, one area of growth is East Asia and the Pacific. Though a small part of the forecast overall, the $825 million projected for investment through partner opportunities is a record high for the region, with Vietnam a particular focus. Eastern Africa has seen an additional $1 billion forecast for investment since Q1 2021, bringing the total to $2.6 billion. A $500 million basic education program targeting Kenya is the largest new opportunity in the region, with an additional $300 million supporting the country in strengthening its health systems. And in Latin America and the Caribbean, forecast opportunities have grown to $1.1 billion, with almost half focused on Colombia. Forecast still reflects previous US admin’s priorities The Q2 2021 business call provided important insights into how USAID programs and procurements may change under the Biden administration. But while Administrator nominee Samantha Power awaits a confirmation hearing, existing programs continue to reflect the previous administration’s priorities. Understanding that priorities and objectives are likely to change, USAID on March 5 paused the development of any new strategic plans. “The temporary pause is applicable only to countries that are launching new strategies in 2021,” said Michele Sumilas, acting chief of staff at the Bureau for Policy, Planning and Learning. “Analytical work, consultations, and other key elements of strategic planning can continue during the pause.” Any mission reviewing midterm priorities is being encouraged to “consider administration priorities and other factors that may affect strategy implementation, such as COVID-19.” COVID-19, climate change, racial equity, and rebuilding the economy will all be priorities under the new administration, according to Gabi Chojkier, deputy assistant administrator at the Bureau for Legislative and Public Affairs — with further information expected as the new administrator is confirmed. But slogans and branding will also change, which may impact business opportunities. “We will table terms like ‘journey to self-reliance’ that are strongly associated with the previous administration,” Chojkier said. “Every administration has verbiage like this, and I’m sure once we have an administrator confirmed, we’ll have a new phrase too.” For access to in-depth analysis, insights, and funding opportunities from over 850 sources — combined with Devex Pro news content — sign up to a Pro Funding subscription online today or get in touch to learn about our Pro Funding group options.